Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.189948 2.311756 2.443264 2.597059 2.773688 2.972397 3.216163
2025-06-01 2.044551 2.197226 2.369007 2.579814 2.836396 3.145702 3.559303
2025-06-08 1.943542 2.113486 2.310089 2.559660 2.876730 3.280261 3.860884
2025-06-15 1.887335 2.073640 2.294550 2.583807 2.966651 3.481239 4.282921
2025-06-22 1.790679 1.977526 2.201833 2.500247 2.903853 3.462918 4.375408
2025-06-29 1.745102 1.940057 2.177922 2.501175 2.951538 3.602575 4.742062
2025-07-06 1.680587 1.875384 2.115266 2.445306 2.913291 3.607745 4.879497
2025-07-13 1.661231 1.865742 2.121625 2.481358 3.007777 3.827803 5.470058
2025-07-20 1.656673 1.874012 2.150865 2.549880 3.156118 4.159761 6.435296
2025-07-27 1.628520 1.850287 2.135930 2.554130 3.205211 4.328795 7.126906
2025-08-03 1.602487 1.828043 2.121548 2.557605 3.252491 4.502131 7.949060
2025-08-10 1.555777 1.776945 2.065644 2.496514 3.188192 4.448726 8.050430
2025-08-17 1.525969 1.748651 2.041787 2.484705 3.210177 4.582668 8.942210
2025-08-24 1.496862 1.720174 2.016294 2.468574 3.222797 4.699721 9.926837
2025-08-31 1.469060 1.692445 1.990577 2.450335 3.229598 4.805523 11.047102
2025-09-07 1.455881 1.683809 1.991096 2.472265 3.309578 5.097401 13.948461
2025-09-14 1.413189 1.633915 1.931247 2.396244 3.203646 4.919660 13.238521
2025-09-21 1.396130 1.618528 1.920213 2.397089 3.240813 5.107766 16.164681
2025-09-28 1.364319 1.582173 1.877950 2.346111 3.176371 5.023062 16.280614
2025-10-05 1.358940 1.581901 1.887627 2.379021 3.274897 5.396035 25.478169
2025-10-12 1.362025 1.593275 1.914496 2.441433 3.439140 6.028882 197.393432
2025-10-19 1.348756 1.581416 1.906590 2.445298 3.484613 6.317101 NaN
2025-10-26 1.335908 1.569788 1.898584 2.448457 3.528888 6.623594 NaN